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Full video of this Coin Trading analysis at the end of the article.
Not much to say about the cryptocurrency market for the past week, or even a few months. The period is consolidationwhether for Bitcoin and a large majority of altcoins. However, it seems necessary to make a point post-Merge aboutEthereum and its cryptocurrency ETH, a few days after the mutation of its blockchain to Proof of Stake.
Bitcoin – Still in consolidation phase
In weekly time unit, we see very clearly that Bitcoin is currently moving within a range. The latter initiated since last June. With some bollinger bands getting closer, but not yet flattened. This suggests that this period of consolidation could last a few more weeks.
As long as the support – located between approximately $17,500 and $19,000 – holds, it remains possible tohope for a rebound which would fetch the upper level of this range. But in the event of a breakout, BTC prices could go much lower.
Bitcoin – Facing an uncertain situation
In daily time unit, we see very clearly that the current support of this range has already been tested 5 times since last June. And unfortunately, with each new contact this movement seems to weaken a little more and more. Because the first time, the BTC had been looking for the $25,000 level. But during the attempt in early September, it only climbed back to around $22,000 before falling again.
All of this indicates very clearly that buyers are becoming increasingly rare while sellers remain very active. With the prospect of a possible further rebound towards the $20,000 level, before break for good the support of this range. Because at the moment, there is no reason to envisage a more significant upward movement, whether in terms of purchase volumes or a possible interesting chart pattern. An uncertain situation for Bitcoin which nevertheless remains – and for the moment – still registered within its range.
Ethereum – Buy the rumor and sell the news
A much more complicated situation for Ethereum at present. Because until last week – and before the start of The Merge – its cryptocurrency ETH was within a range between the support of $1400 and the resistance of 2000$ approx. The latter almost perfectly coinciding with the upper limit of the Bollinger bands.
But the successful passage of this historic stage obviously had the main consequence of triggering a significant decline. And this even though some saw it as the catalyst to start a new bull market on the ETH cryptocurrency. A situation that allows us to recall this proverb on the stock market: you have to buy the rumor and sell the news. Because the rise of ETH had already started since last June, in anticipation of this date, with a price almost multiplied by 2 over this period.
Ethereum – The decline is on
A situation even more visible in H1 time unit. Because since September 15 – and an important bearish candle – the trend is very clearly on the downside. With losses of around 20% on the price of the cryptocurrency ETH over this simple period. And there is no reason to envisage a trend reversal for now.
Because obviously, the period is selling the news. With the last important step, the break of the $14,000 support which until then closed the road to a more significant decline. A level already tested several times since last July. With the prospect now to watch the $1000 level as the next possible support. Because the price curve of the cryptocurrency ETH has already been bouncing on it last July. And it also corresponds to the current lower bound of the Bollinger bands, in weekly time units.
Ethereum – Waiting for a bounce set up
In daily time unit, it is possible to add an additional intermediate support around $1250 about. An old resistance level already tested several times over the past few months. And whose crossing, last July, had allowed the cryptocurrency ETH to seek almost directly the resistance of $2000.
It therefore remains to be hoped that this support could allow Ether to bounce off it, at least in the short term. Knowing that the trend in the cryptocurrency market is more of a correction at present. With a Bitcoin on the edge of this abyss. And a situation that requireswait at least one rebound set up before deciding to take a stand.
Altcoins vs Bitcoin – No Breakout
The graph of altcoins market against Bitcoin (TOTAL2/BTC) does not allow to be more optimistic. With a break of the resistance installed for more than 4 years which has just been invalidated once again. And this despite last week’s historic attempt, in obvious lack ofan essential closure to confirm it.
With the consequence, a downward opening for this beginning of the week. And a crossing of this resistance again postponed to a later date, just like the long-awaited outperformance of altcoins against Bitcoin. But with a curve still inscribed in this range initiated more than a year ago. And Bollinger bands coming together in quite an interesting way. With a gap narrowing historically, if we look back to previous years.
A break from the top of this kind of configuration could deliver an upward movement worthy of that recorded in 2017, in the same case. But that could only happen in several months and not before the year 2023. Nevertheless, once triggered – and the buying signals identified and validated – this impulse could well be at the origin of a very interesting altseason.
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