USD/JPY: watch out for the risk of BoJ intervention

The previous high at 140 will be the judge of the USD/JPY trend

Although the risk of intervention by the Japanese authorities is probably the greatest since the last intervention in 1998, technical analysis does not give any bearish signal for USD/JPY at this time.

The underlying trend remains indisputably bearish. Nonetheless, we can see a bearish divergence in the RSI, which is consistent with the slowing bullish momentum in recent days.

It will probably be better to wait for a start of USD/JPY retracement, or an official intervention from the Japanese authorities, before taking a position on the downside. Technically, a pullback below the previous high at 140 would be a technical signal for a bigger pullback.

The next meeting of the Bank of Japan is scheduled for September 22, a few hours after that of the Fed. Volatility therefore has a strong chance of being significant next Wednesday and Thursday. The Japanese central bank could start to toughen its tone after receiving the message from the government. The central bank could eventually announce the end of the yield curve capping to free the yen from selling pressure.


Leave a Comment